How This Winter’s Historically Low Snowpack Could Impact Summer River Flows

It’s the beginning of March and many of us are sitting outside without a coat on, enjoying the sunshine. The calendar states it’s still winter but it doesn’t look or feel like it in Basalt. If you’re thinking like us - a peaceful bask in the sun gets interrupted by looming concerns about what the actual spring and subsequent summer is going to hold.   

This winter’s record breaking high temperatures across the West, caused much of the sparse precipitation to fall as rain rather than snow at mid-elevations like Basalt, with snow falling only at the higher elevations. So, it may not come as a surprise that statewide Colorado has the lowest snowpack in recorded history. According to scientists at The Colorado Climate Center, the 2026 snowpack is most comparable to 1977, one of the lowest on record. However, complete snowpack data does not exist for the entire Roaring Fork Watershed for that year. SNOTEL sites came online in the mid-1980s, meaning 1977 data was gathered on foot exclusively at Independence Pass via snow course methods.

Amid so much uncertainty, we took a closer look at some data - comparing snowpack and peak runoff dates during recent drought years in the Roaring Fork Watershed. Winter precipitation, particularly snow, is the savings account the rivers draw upon for the summer. In headwaters communities like ours, we are solely reliant upon snowpack to supply water for rivers, homes, agriculture, and more. Much like a seasonal worker, we need to build up our winter savings so we can have a little fun in the off season! When our bank account, or in this case snowpack, is low, it greatly impacts how much we can spend, use, and subsequently enjoy in the spring and summer. So, while we hope everyone has enjoyed the few good ski days we’ve had, we can’t help but look ahead and begin to plan for the worst while we continue to hope for the best.

The Natural Resources Conservation Service SNOTEL data below depicts the years with the lowest snow water equivalent, or SWE, in the Roaring Fork Watershed. When it comes to our savings account of snow, we need to measure not in inches of powder but inches of water that will melt out of the snow.

We then used U.S. Geological Survey data to determine peak runoff dates and flow, measured in cubic feet per second (cfs). 

It’s important to note that the Roaring Fork Watershed has 9 SNOTEL sites located near the headwaters of the Crystal, Fryingpan, and Roaring Fork Rivers. These strategically placed automated snow monitoring stations measure data including snow depth, snow water equivalent, precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture – all which informs hydrologists and water managers that forecast summer river flows.

Snowpack in the Roaring Fork Watershed is well below average for this time of year and has been all winter. As of March 4, 2026, snowpack in the Roaring Fork Watershed was 65% of normal, and average SWE across Roaring Fork Watershed SNOTEL sites averaged 8.7” (the median for this date is 13.4”).  Winters with less snowfall result in not just lower, but also earlier peak SWE and runoff. This means our greatest snowpack occurs earlier than usual which in turn leads to runoff starting, peaking, and ending sooner than usual. Previously, 2012 held the record for the Roaring Fork Watershed’s lowest peak snowpack (11.4” SWE) and lowest runoff peak flow (2,110 cfs). Peak runoff in 2012 was lower than peak runoff in 1977. To date, 2026 SWE is lower than 2012.

This table show the Top 10 lowest peak runoffs for the Roaring Fork River in Glenwood Springs.

What does this mean for the upcoming spring and summer? While we can’t be sure, we sure are concerned! In 1977, the abnormally dry winter found some relief in a big spring storm. So, while we can still hold out hope for a snowy March or “miracle May,” there are certainly no guarantees. Short-term forecasts continue to predict above average temperatures and below normal precipitation, and while every drop helps, we may need more help than is realistically possible. The Roaring Fork Watershed has experienced drought conditions since February 2025 and reached exceptional drought (5 out of 5 level of intensity) on December 24, 2025. Adding insult to injury, soil moisture was also below average heading into this winter. Soil acts like a sponge. When the sponge is full, water keeps moving into the rivers. When the sponge is dry, it soaks up needed moisture before it reaches the rivers. Combine these conditions with historically low snowpack and the concern for the coming summer intensifies.

What is a proactive and concerned Roaring Fork Valley resident to do? So glad you asked! There are a few small changes that can go a long way - particularly in outdoor water use.

• When you choose your annuals this year, consider native plants that can tolerate drought conditions and require less watering. 
• Use timers on irrigation systems and only operate at the coolest part of the day to minimize evaporation (dusk to dawn).
• Adjust sprinklers to water only the targeted plants. Watering the asphalt does not help it grow 😉 and water lost to evaporation is lost to our watershed forever.  
• Research the minimum water needed to keep lawns green - it might be less than you think!
• Consider swapping out thirsty Kentucky bluegrass for native grasses or xeriscapes.
• Follow municipal watering restrictions and conservation plans.
• Additional outdoor and indoor water saving tips can be found at https://www.roaringfork.org/drought/.  

We can’t control the weather, but we can control how we act and react. What we do in our homes, yards, and communities can collectively have a real impact! So, while you continue to stay informed about Colorado River shortages and negotiations and participate in wildfire ready action plans and preventative mitigations, remember that every drop counts and small actions taken on by a whole community or watershed can go a long way in navigating a drought.

 

What is the Snowiest Month in the Roaring Fork Watershed?

We took another deep dive into some data to answer this question. Looking at the third column in the graph below - titled 'median' - all those colors represent different months. When viewed on the USDA website, toggling a mouse on each month provides the median SWE that has accumulated in that month during the 30-year average (1991-2020).  What did we find?

November median SWE:  2.9"
December median SWE:  3.0"
January median SWE:     3.2"
February median SWE:    3.5"
March median SWE:        3.3"
April median SWE:          2.6"

Technically, February is the snowiest month in the Roaring Fork Watershed, but January, February, and March only vary by 0.2-0.3".

So far in 2026, the Roaring Fork Watershed has accumulated the equivalent of what we would normally receive by mid-January.

What's the take home? We need steady precipitation year-round.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 RFC's 2025 Annual Report is available at
https://roaringfork.org/about-us/annual-reports/.

  

 

 

 

Celebrate World Water Day with RFC staff and River Stewards, and the City of Aspen Clean River Program at Friday Morning Uphill Breakfast Club on Friday, March 27 - 8:45am to 10am!

Grab your friends to hike or skin up** to the Cliffhouse restaurant for breakfast at the top of Buttermilk!  A discounted breakfast will be available for purchase with coffee, tea, and hot chocolate, an oatmeal and yogurt station featuring dry quick oats in a mason jar ready to be prepared as well as a toppings bar filled with healthy add-ons. A hot breakfast will also be available with two menu options: a signature Cliffhouse breakfast of fried rice with a farm egg or thick-cut French toast with crisp bacon. Yum! 

As you hike up on this summer's river flows, keep an eye out for Watershed Trivia along the way to win giveaways at the top! 

**Please note that an Uphill Pass is required to uphill on Aspen Snowmass Ski Areas. Learn more about Uphill Policy at https://www.aspensnowmass.com/four-mountains/buttermilk/uphill-policy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Registration Now Open for Youth Fly Fishing Clinics  

In partnership with Taylor Creek Fly Shop, RFC is offering two beginner youth fly fishing clinics this June: June 9-11 and June 15-17.

Additional details and registration information can be found at https://roaringfork.org/events/.

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

	Double your Impact with a Company Match By taking advantage of a company's matching gift benefit, you may be able to double or even triple the amount of your contribution. Ask your HR department today and notify RFC by emailing sheryl@roaringfork.org.

Consider a Charitable Rollover Individuals over 70½ may donate to charities directly from their IRA, known as a Qualified Charitable Distribution (QCD). QCDs count towards any required minimum distribution (RMD) an account holder must take from their IRA. With a QCD you can benefit your Roaring Fork Watershed, fulfill your RMD requirement, and exclude that amount from your income. Ask your financial advisor if this is a good strategy for you to support your rivers!

	Would you like to be featured as a Spotlight Business Member? Join us as a Premier Business Member! Show your clients and customers that you support essential river research, education, and conservation work and be featured as a Spotlight Business Member!

 

 

  If you have a City Market loyalty card, supporting your watershed is as easy as 1-2-3!

  1) Click enroll and log in to your account at www.citymarketcommunityrewards.com

  2) Search for Roaring Fork Conservancy or CV113

  3) Click Enroll and you're ready to support your rivers while you run errands! 

  Learn more at: https://www.citymarket.com/account/enrollCommunityRewardsNow/

MARCH SPOTLIGHT BUSINESS MEMBER! 

Professional Early Childhood Behavior Coaching

Better behavior starts today!

Growth Early Childhood Group exists to bridge the gap between research and reality in early childhood behavior—so that families, educators, and communities in the Roaring Fork Valley are empowered to create environments where young children thrive. Through Coaching, Consulting, and the Research Institute, we translate cutting-edge behavioral research into practical, relationship-centered, inclusive support that builds competent and confident caregivers and helps optimize the early childhood experience—today and in the future.

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